Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Devers homered to right center (425 feet), O'Neill scored.5–1
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 35–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 7Duran singled to center, Casas scored and Yoshida scored.3–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 6Henderson homered to right center (362 feet).1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6O'Neill singled to center, Rafaela scored, Refsnyder to second.1–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 51%
- ML BOS -105 / BAL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 54.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BAL -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.7 – 4.8 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −26 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 1.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +32 Elo | BAL 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 26th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3035–25 | Road vs home | 36–279th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–68 | 66–56 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–45 | 46–48 |
| Underdog | 33–23 | 20–8 |
| Overs–unders | 65–55–2 | 71–49–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 8–13 BAL in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 21.