Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Cooper CriswellPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Orioles- Ramon UriasBatting3-3, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Urías hit sacrifice fly to center, O'Hearn scored.12–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play12–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 112–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul12–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul12–10
- 8Yoshida singled to right, Wong scored.12–9
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play12–9
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 312–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul12–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking12–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 212–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 112–9
- 7Henderson grounded into fielder's choice to second, Cowser scored, Santander out at second.11–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul11–9
- 7Urías homered to center (409 feet), Mullins scored.11–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul11–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–8
- 7Duran homered to right center (420 feet).11–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play11–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul11–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging11–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging11–6
- 7Hamilton homered to right (358 feet), Sogard scored.10–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–6
- 5McCann hit sacrifice fly to center, Holliday scored, Mullins to third.8–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–6
- 5Urías singled to center, Jiménez scored, Mullins to second, Holliday to third.8–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–5
- 4Yoshida homered to right center (381 feet), Devers scored and Wong scored.8–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–4
- 4Wong singled to right, Duran scored, Devers to second.5–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 3Urías walked, Holliday scored on Criswell wild pitch, Mullins to third on wild pitch by Criswell.4–4
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball 44–4
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 34–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 62%
- ML BOS +150 / BAL -180
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- BAL: Elo 59.2%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- BAL -161
- BOS +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.7 – 4.8 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +11 | BOS: Brennan Bernardino: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · BAL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +65 Elo | BAL 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 63.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 4th of 3034–25 | Road vs home | 36–269th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–68 | 66–55 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 21–45 | 46–47 |
| Underdog | 32–23 | 20–8 |
| Overs–unders | 64–55–2 | 70–49–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 7–13 BAL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 20.