Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Nicky LopezBatting1-4
- Ky BushPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Altuve homered to left (343 feet).0–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 6Diaz homered to left center (389 feet).0–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 76.7% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 76%
- ML CHW +295 / HOU -375
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 73.3%, market 75.7%
- Fair odds
- HOU -312
- CHW +312 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.0 – 5.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1385 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +17 | CHW: Ky Bush: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.86 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +176 Elo | HOU 73.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 76.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 76.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 75.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | +0.611th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 30th of 3012–50 | Road vs home | 33–2713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–66 | 61–58 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 38–47 |
| Underdog | 51–63 | 23–11 |
| Overs–unders | 57–65–1 | 49–67–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 5–7 HOU in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.