Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting4-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Astros- Jake MeyersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Singleton homered to left center (364 feet).5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 8Robert Jr. singled to center, Fletcher scored, Lopez to third.5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 6Meyers homered to left (360 feet), Caratini scored.4–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 34–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 24–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Robert Jr. homered to left (329 feet).4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 3Alvarez singled to left, Altuve scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Robert Jr. homered to left (415 feet), Lopez scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 2Fletcher grounded into fielder's choice to first, Vaughn scored, Vargas out at second, Lee to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 70%
- ML CHW +215 / HOU -270
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 72.0%, market 69.7%
- Fair odds
- HOU -230
- CHW +230 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 2.8 – 4.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1384 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | 0 | CHW: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +164 Elo | HOU 72.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 64.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 69.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 30th of 3011–49 | Road vs home | 32–2611th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–65 | 60–57 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 37–46 |
| Underdog | 50–62 | 23–11 |
| Overs–unders | 56–64–1 | 48–66–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 4–6 HOU in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.