Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Gavin SheetsBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Meyers scored, Whitcomb to second on pickoff error by pitcher Varland.1–6
- 8Meyers scored, Whitcomb to second on pickoff error by pitcher Varland.1–6
- 7Diaz reached on infield single to third, Altuve scored, McCormick to second.1–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 4Dubón hit sacrifice fly to left, Caratini scored.1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 3Alvarez singled to left, Altuve scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 21–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 11–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 3Altuve singled to center, Whitcomb scored and Dubón scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 1Sheets singled to left, Benintendi scored, Vaughn to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 76.7% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 76%
- ML CHW +300 / HOU -385
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 76.4%, market 76.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -318
- CHW +318 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.0 – 5.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1386 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −26 | +8 | CHW: Chris Flexen: team allows 1.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +204 Elo | HOU 76.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 76.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 76.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 76.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.0 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 30th of 3012–49 | Road vs home | 32–2713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–65 | 60–58 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 37–47 |
| Underdog | 51–62 | 23–11 |
| Overs–unders | 57–64–1 | 49–66–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 5–6 HOU in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.