Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Diaz homered to left center (401 feet).4–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Dubón singled to left, McCormick scored.4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 6Singleton hit sacrifice fly to center, Peña scored.4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 6Yoshida homered to left (344 feet), González scored.4–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 4Caratini singled to right, Diaz scored and Peña scored on throwing error by catcher D. Jansen, Caratini to third.2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 1Devers scored on error, D. Jansen safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Whitcomb, González safe at third on error.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Duran homered to left (356 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 57%
- ML BOS +120 / HOU -145
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 56.2%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -130
- BOS +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.0 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −17 | BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +43 Elo | HOU 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 3rd of 3036–26 | Road vs home | 34–2711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–69 | 61–59 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–45 | 38–48 |
| Underdog | 34–24 | 23–11 |
| Overs–unders | 65–57–2 | 49–68–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–8 HOU in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.