Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Austin SlaterBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cole IrvinPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Winker homered to center (417 feet).3–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 33–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 23–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 13–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 8Rutschman hit sacrifice fly to left, Cowser scored.3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 7Vientos homered to center (414 feet).2–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 6Slater homered to right (361 feet), Holliday scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Martinez grounded into fielder's choice to third, Bader scored, Vientos out at second.0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Lindor homered to right center (401 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 55%
- ML BAL +115 / NYM -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 48.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -124
- BAL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.0 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +11 | BAL: Cole Irvin: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +7 Elo | BAL 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3037–25 | Road vs home | 34–3217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–57 | 57–67 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 47–49 | 29–43 |
| Underdog | 22–8 | 28–24 |
| Overs–unders | 72–52–2 | 63–61 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 4–1 NYM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.