Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Ben GamelBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting1-4
- Corbin BurnesPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Whitcomb singled to center, Gamel scored and Meyers scored.6–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 26–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 6Meyers reached on bunt single to pitcher, Caratini scored on error, Gamel to second, Meyers to second, Gamel safe at third on throwing error by pitcher Burnes.4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 6Gamel singled to right, Alvarez scored, Caratini to third.3–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 33–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 4Gamel singled to center, Diaz scored, Caratini to third.2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Alvarez singled to right, Altuve scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 60%
- ML HOU +140 / BAL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- BAL: Elo 53.7%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- BAL -149
- HOU +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.3 – 4.2 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +3 | HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +26 Elo | BAL 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 10th of 3031–29 | Road vs home | 37–2810th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–62 | 70–57 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 38–51 | 47–49 |
| Underdog | 23–11 | 23–8 |
| Overs–unders | 51–69–3 | 72–53–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 6–3 BAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 9.