Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting4-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Duran homered to left center (367 feet).6–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–5
- 5Diaz homered to center (409 feet).5–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 4Casas singled to center, Duran scored.5–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 4Duran singled to left, Hamilton scored, Duran to second.4–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 14–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 2McCormick hit sacrifice fly to center, Meyers scored.3–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 1Singleton homered to right center (380 feet), Alvarez scored.3–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 1Peña hit sacrifice fly to center, Altuve scored.3–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 1Casas homered to right (384 feet), Abreu scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Abreu doubled to right, Duran scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 50%
- ML BOS -110 / HOU -110
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 59.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -100
- BOS -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.3 – 4.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +5 | BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +65 Elo | HOU 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 4th of 3036–27 | Road vs home | 35–2711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–69 | 61–60 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–45 | 38–49 |
| Underdog | 35–24 | 23–11 |
| Overs–unders | 66–57–2 | 50–68–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–9 HOU in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.