Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- David HamiltonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cooper CriswellPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hamilton homered to right (380 feet).4–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 7Rafaela doubled to left, Yoshida scored.3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 2Rafaela doubled to shortstop, Wong scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 1Bregman homered to left (361 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Casas singled to center, Duran scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 57%
- ML BOS +120 / HOU -145
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 55.2%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -130
- BOS +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.0 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −4 | BOS: Cooper Criswell: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · HOU: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +36 Elo | HOU 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 60.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.610th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 4th of 3037–27 | Road vs home | 35–2812th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–69 | 61–61 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–45 | 38–50 |
| Underdog | 36–24 | 23–11 |
| Overs–unders | 67–57–2 | 51–68–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–9 HOU in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 12.