Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Orioles- Jackson HollidayBatting1-1, 3 RBI
- Albert SuarezPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Holliday doubled to center, Cowser scored, Henderson scored and Jiménez scored.2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Peña homered to left center (416 feet).2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Altuve homered to left (408 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 50%
- ML HOU -110 / BAL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 51.6%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- BAL -100
- HOU -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.3 – 4.3 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +20 | +12 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.99 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Albert Suarez: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +11 Elo | BAL 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 10th of 3032–30 | Road vs home | 38–2910th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–63 | 71–58 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 38–52 | 47–50 |
| Underdog | 24–11 | 24–8 |
| Overs–unders | 52–70–3 | 73–54–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 7–4 BAL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 11.