Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Shay WhitcombBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Harper singled to right, Schwarber scored, Turner to second.2–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Castellanos singled to center, Harper scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 5Marsh homered to left center (391 feet).2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Whitcomb doubled to left, Caratini scored and Meyers scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 64%
- ML HOU +165 / PHI -200
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.0%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -177
- HOU +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.1 – 4.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +12 | HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +35 Elo | PHI 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 11th of 3033–31 | Road vs home | 42–222nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–63 | 65–65 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 38–52 | 47–52 |
| Underdog | 26–11 | 18–13 |
| Overs–unders | 53–71–3 | 61–68–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 1–2 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.