Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting4-4, 3 HR, 4 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching7.2 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting1-4
- Taijuan WalkerPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alvarez homered to center (408 feet).10–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–0
- 8McCormick homered to right center (412 feet), Dubón scored.9–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–0
- 7Alvarez homered to center (433 feet).7–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 4Alvarez homered to left (349 feet), Altuve scored.6–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 4Dubón singled to center, Meyers scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 4Meyers doubled to left, Caratini scored and Gamel scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Altuve stole home.1–0
- 1Altuve stole home.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 53%
- ML HOU -125 / PHI +105
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 48.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -114
- PHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.9 – 4.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −14 | HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +14 Elo | PHI 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 15th of 3033–33 | Road vs home | 44–221st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–64 | 66–66 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 38–52 | 48–53 |
| Underdog | 27–12 | 18–13 |
| Overs–unders | 53–73–3 | 61–70–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 1–4 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.