Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 10 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 8Witt Jr. homered to left (398 feet).2–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 7Loftin grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Fermin scored, Melendez out at second.1–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 6Peña scored on Cruz wild pitch.0–5
- 6Peña scored on Cruz wild pitch.0–5
- 6Peña tripled to center, Alvarez scored and Diaz scored.0–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 6Diaz singled to left, Altuve scored and Gamel scored, Alvarez to second.0–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 54%
- ML KC +110 / HOU -130
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 55.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -119
- KC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.6 – 3.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −15 | KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +35 Elo | HOU 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 12th of 3034–33 | Road vs home | 37–2912th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–58 | 67–65 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 33–34 | 40–53 |
| Underdog | 43–24 | 27–12 |
| Overs–unders | 62–71–1 | 55–74–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 8–3 HOU in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 11.