Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Brayan RocchioBatting1-1, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-3
- Brady SingerPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kwan singled to center, Brennan scored and Thomas scored, Kwan to second, Rocchio to third.7–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 27–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 8Rocchio walked, Noel scored, Thomas to second, Brennan to third.5–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 45–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 35–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 7Rocchio homered to left (372 feet), Bo Naylor scored.4–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 6DeJong hit sacrifice fly to left, Pham scored.2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Giménez singled to left, Rocchio scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Rocchio hit sacrifice fly to left, Brennan scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 55%
- ML CLE -135 / KC +115
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 51.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -124
- KC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.0 – 3.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −6 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +9 Elo | CLE 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 12th of 3036–34 | Road vs home | 41–296th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–64 | 76–61 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 36–42 | 33–35 |
| Underdog | 37–22 | 43–26 |
| Overs–unders | 69–66–2 | 63–73–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 11–13 KC in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 24.