Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Isbel hit sacrifice fly to center, Fermin scored.4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6J. Naylor homered to center (420 feet), Ramírez scored.4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5Thomas homered to left center (414 feet), Noel scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Garcia doubled to left, Gurriel scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 51%
- ML CLE -105 / KC -115
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- KC: Elo 52.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -104
- CLE +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.7 – 3.8 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +4 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +19 Elo | KC 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 13th of 3035–34 | Road vs home | 41–285th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–64 | 76–60 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 36–42 | 33–34 |
| Underdog | 36–22 | 43–26 |
| Overs–unders | 69–65–2 | 63–72–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 10–13 KC in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.