Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Edouard JulienBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Díaz hit a ground rule double, DeLuca scored.4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 3Caminero singled to right, DeLuca scored and Walls scored, B. Lowe to third.4–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 3Wallner homered to right (357 feet).4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 2Julien homered to right (392 feet), Miranda scored and Santana scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 58%
- ML MIN -155 / TB +130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 52.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -140
- TB +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.6 – 2.9 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −15 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +18 Elo | MIN 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.424th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 11th of 3036–34 | Road vs home | 37–3719th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–72 | 64–74 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 39–54 | 24–44 |
| Underdog | 27–18 | 40–30 |
| Overs–unders | 71–67 | 66–72 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–9 TB in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.