San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bogaerts hit sacrifice fly to center, Wade scored on error, Machado to second, Machado safe at third on throwing error by center fielder Siri.4–3
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 24–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 6B. Lowe scored on Adam wild pitch.3–3
- 6B. Lowe scored on Adam wild pitch.3–3
- 6B. Lowe scored on Adam wild pitch.3–3
- 6J. Lowe grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Díaz scored, Caminero out at second, B. Lowe to third.3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 6Caminero hit by pitch, Siri scored, B. Lowe to second, Díaz to third.3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Profar hit sacrifice fly to left, D. Peralta scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Merrill homered to center (421 feet), Bogaerts scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 53%
- ML SD -125 / TB +105
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- SD: Elo 52.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SD -114
- TB +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.4 – 3.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −3 | SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +18 Elo | SD 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3039–29 | Road vs home | 35–3520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–66 | 62–72 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 34–49 | 24–42 |
| Underdog | 37–17 | 38–30 |
| Overs–unders | 76–61–1 | 63–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 3–2 TB in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.