San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting3-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9McCoy scored on O'Brien wild pitch.7–5
- 9McCoy scored on O'Brien wild pitch.7–5
- 7Cronenworth singled to center, Arraez scored.6–5
- 7Pitch 9 : Ball In Play6–5
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 26–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 7Profar hit sacrifice fly to center, McCoy scored, Arraez to third.5–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 5Goldschmidt homered to left center (406 feet), Nootbaar scored.4–5
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 24–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 14–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 5Nootbaar singled to center, Donovan scored.4–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 2Arraez singled to left, Campusano scored.4–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 2McCoy grounded out to second, D. Peralta scored, Campusano to second.3–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul3–2
- 2Campusano singled to right, Merrill scored, D. Peralta to third.2–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 57%
- ML SD -145 / STL +120
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- SD: Elo 55.0%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- SD -130
- STL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.5 – 4.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +5 | SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +35 Elo | SD 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3037–26 | Road vs home | 33–3118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–63 | 63–67 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 33–48 | 19–42 |
| Underdog | 36–15 | 44–25 |
| Overs–unders | 73–59–1 | 62–66–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 5–5 STL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.