New York Mets at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Mark VientosBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Padres- Jurickson ProfarBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Profar singled to right, Campusano scored, McCoy to third.8–3
- 9Pitch 9 : Ball In Play8–3
- 9Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 38–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 28–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 18–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging8–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–3
- 9McCoy singled to left, D. Peralta scored, Campusano to second.8–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking8–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 38–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 28–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 9Iglesias reached on infield single to third, Winker scored.8–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 28–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 9Winker doubled to center, Alonso scored, Winker to third.7–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 9Alonso singled to right, Lindor scored.6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Vientos singled to center, McNeil scored and Taylor scored, Lindor to second.5–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 5Cronenworth grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, McCoy scored, Profar out at second, Arraez to third.3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4McNeil reached on infield single to shortstop, Iglesias scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Winker scored, Iglesias to third on passed ball by Campusano.2–0
- 4Winker scored, Iglesias to third on passed ball by Campusano.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 59%
- ML NYM +135 / SD -160
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- SD: Elo 60.3%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -145
- NYM +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.3 – 4.2 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +7 | NYM: Luis Severino: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +72 Elo | SD 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 10th of 3030–28 | Road vs home | 35–2914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–68 | 68–60 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–44 | 32–45 |
| Underdog | 28–24 | 35–15 |
| Overs–unders | 63–62 | 70–57–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 6–3 SD in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.