San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Luis CampusanoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Michael TogliaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Campusano homered to left center (415 feet).8–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 28–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 18–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking8–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 6Toglia homered to right center (410 feet), Doyle scored.7–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 37–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 27–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 6Rodgers grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Tovar scored, McMahon out at second, Doyle to third.7–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–1
- 6Bogaerts singled to right, Profar scored, Solano out at third on runner's fielder's choice.7–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 6Johnson grounded into fielder's choice to second, D. Peralta scored, Campusano out at second.6–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 26–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 5Cronenworth grounded out to first, Bogaerts scored, Machado to second.5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 4Profar singled to center, Campusano scored, Profar out stretching at second, Johnson to third.4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Johnson singled to left, D. Peralta scored, Campusano to second.3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Campusano grounded out to shortstop, Cronenworth scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Cronenworth singled to center, Machado scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 64%
- ML SD -200 / COL +165
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- SD: Elo 64.6%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- SD -177
- COL +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 5.9 – 4.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +6 | SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +105 Elo | SD 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 64.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 4th of 3035–25 | Road vs home | 28–3025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–58 | 61–58 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–43 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 34–15 | 60–52 |
| Overs–unders | 66–56–1 | 65–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 13–11 COL in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 24.