San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Ha-Seong KimBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matt WaldronPitching5.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Charlie BlackmonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Beck singled to right, Toglia scored.3–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–7
- 4Bogaerts homered to left (447 feet).3–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 2Blackmon homered to right (450 feet), Beck scored.2–6
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–6
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 32–6
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–6
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–6
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 2Kim homered to left (405 feet), D. Peralta scored.2–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 1Rodgers homered to left (439 feet), Doyle scored and McMahon scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 1McMahon singled to left, Tovar scored, Doyle to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 60%
- ML SD -165 / COL +140
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.3 pts
- SD: Elo 66.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- SD -149
- COL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 6.2 – 5.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −12 | SD: Matt Waldron: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +117 Elo | SD 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 61.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3035–24 | Road vs home | 27–3025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–57 | 60–58 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–42 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 34–15 | 59–52 |
| Overs–unders | 66–55–1 | 65–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 13–10 COL in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 23.