San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe MusgrovePitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Jacob StallingsBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Bradley BlalockPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Machado homered to left (402 feet).2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 6Hilliard grounded out to second, Toglia scored, Stallings to second.1–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 31–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 6Stallings singled to right, Doyle scored on error, Toglia to second, Toglia safe at third on fielding error by right fielder D. Peralta.1–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4D. Peralta doubled to center, Merrill scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 3Schunk doubled to left, Beck scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 12 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 11 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 30–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 63%
- ML SD -190 / COL +160
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- SD: Elo 64.2%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- SD -170
- COL +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 6.3 – 5.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1416 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +13 | SD: Joe Musgrove: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · COL: Bradley Blalock: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +101 Elo | SD 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 62.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3036–25 | Road vs home | 28–3125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–58 | 61–59 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–43 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 34–15 | 60–53 |
| Overs–unders | 67–56–1 | 66–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 14–11 COL in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 25.