Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Christian VazquezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting1-4, 3 RBI
- Michael KingPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vázquez reached on infield single to third, Julien scored.3–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 3Merrill doubled to center, Bogaerts scored, Profar scored and Cronenworth scored.2–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 2Castro grounded into fielder's choice to second, Julien scored, Martin out at second, Vázquez to third.2–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 1Bogaerts singled to left, Profar scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 1Cronenworth grounded out to second, Arraez scored, Profar to second.1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Wallner doubled to right, Larnach scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 61%
- ML MIN +145 / SD -175
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- SD: Elo 54.1%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- SD -156
- MIN +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.8 – 3.7 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +10 | MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +29 Elo | SD 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.611th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 6th of 3034–30 | Road vs home | 33–2815th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–62 | 66–59 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 37–46 | 31–44 |
| Underdog | 24–16 | 34–15 |
| Overs–unders | 63–60 | 67–57–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–1 SD in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.