Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Padres- Jurickson ProfarBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bogaerts doubled to center, Cronenworth scored.5–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–7
- 8Profar homered to left (353 feet), Solano scored and Arraez scored.5–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 8Vázquez singled to left, Lewis scored and Santana scored, Vázquez to second, Jeffers thrown out at third.5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 7Machado homered to center (433 feet), Cronenworth scored.3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 5Lewis hit sacrifice fly to left, Kepler scored, Margot to second, Martin out at home in rundown.3–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 4Jeffers homered to left (393 feet), Santana scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2D. Peralta singled to center, Merrill scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 52%
- ML MIN -120 / SD +100
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 49.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- SD +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.8 – 3.7 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −4 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Martin Perez: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +5 Elo | SD 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 8th of 3034–31 | Road vs home | 34–2814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–63 | 67–59 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 37–46 | 32–44 |
| Underdog | 24–17 | 34–15 |
| Overs–unders | 64–60 | 68–57–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–2 SD in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.