Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matt WaldronPitching4.1 IP, 10 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Margot singled to right, Julien scored.11–4
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play11–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 211–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul11–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 111–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul11–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul11–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–4
- 8Merrill homered to right (403 feet), Johnson scored.10–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging10–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 110–4
- 8Johnson singled to center, Cronenworth scored.10–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul10–2
- 5Solano homered to left center (391 feet).10–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–1
- 5Larnach singled to left, Martin scored, Castro to third.10–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 110–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–0
- 5Martin doubled to left, Julien scored.9–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–0
- 4Wallner homered to right (410 feet), Larnach scored and Lewis scored.8–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 28–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 4Lewis singled to center, Castro scored, Larnach to second.5–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Castro doubled to right, Martin scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Martin doubled to left, Vázquez scored and Julien scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Lewis hit sacrifice fly to center, Castro scored, Larnach to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 53%
- ML MIN +105 / SD -125
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- SD: Elo 53.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SD -114
- MIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.1 – 4.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −9 | MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Matt Waldron: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +22 Elo | SD 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 11th of 3034–32 | Road vs home | 35–2812th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–64 | 68–59 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 37–47 | 32–44 |
| Underdog | 24–17 | 35–15 |
| Overs–unders | 65–60 | 69–57–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–3 SD in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.