New York Mets at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- David PetersonPitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Padres- Kyle HigashiokaBatting2-4
- Michael KingPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bader homered to left center (395 feet).7–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 27–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 7Lindor homered to left (360 feet).6–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 5Arraez grounded out to third, Higashioka scored, McCoy to second, Johnson to third.5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 4Lindor homered to right center (417 feet), Marte scored, Alvarez scored and McNeil scored.5–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 1Alonso doubled to shortstop, Vientos scored, Nimmo to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 57%
- ML NYM +120 / SD -145
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- SD: Elo 57.6%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- SD -130
- NYM +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.5 – 4.0 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +9 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +53 Elo | SD 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 9th of 3031–29 | Road vs home | 36–3015th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–69 | 69–61 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–44 | 33–46 |
| Underdog | 29–25 | 35–15 |
| Overs–unders | 64–63 | 71–58–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 7–4 SD in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.