Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting1-4
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Victor Scott IIBatting3-4
- Miles MikolasPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Arenado singled to left, Burleson scored, Donovan to second.0–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 7Donovan hit into fielder's choice to center, Winn scored, Contreras out at second, Burleson to third.0–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 7Contreras walked, Scott II scored, Burleson to second, Winn to third.0–1
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball 40–1
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 30–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 20–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML MIL -135 / STL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 57.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -124
- STL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.0 – 3.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −1 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +54 Elo | MIL 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 5th of 3035–29 | Road vs home | 32–3018th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–56 | 60–65 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–38 | 19–41 |
| Underdog | 40–18 | 41–24 |
| Overs–unders | 70–54 | 61–62–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 15–7 STL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 22.