Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Nootbaar homered to right center (409 feet).2–1
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 32–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 5Rojas singled to left, Betts scored, Lux to third.2–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 5Ohtani homered to right center (396 feet).1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 52%
- ML LAD +100 / STL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.5 pts
- STL: Elo 40.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -109
- LAD +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 3.7 – 3.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −5 | LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +66 Elo | LAD 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 7th of 3033–30 | Road vs home | 31–2816th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–65 | 59–63 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 52–55 | 18–39 |
| Underdog | 7–10 | 41–24 |
| Overs–unders | 65–58–1 | 60–60–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 8–5 STL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.