Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Kevin KiermaierBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Justin WrobleskiPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Pedro PagesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Pagés singled to left, Goldschmidt scored, Donovan to third.7–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 27–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 6Donovan singled to left, Pham scored, Goldschmidt to second.7–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 37–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 27–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 6Kiermaier homered to right center (415 feet), Smith scored and Rojas scored.7–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 6Rojas singled to center, Lux scored, Smith to third.4–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 6Betts homered to left (396 feet).3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 5Pagés homered to center (462 feet).2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 3Winn homered to left (407 feet).2–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 2Goldschmidt homered to right center (377 feet), Arenado scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Kiermaier singled to right, Rojas scored on error, Kiermaier safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Walker.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Lux homered to center (407 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 55%
- ML LAD -135 / STL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 53.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -124
- STL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.0 – 4.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −32 | +1 | LAD: Justin Wrobleski: team allows 1.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +23 Elo | LAD 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 9th of 3032–29 | Road vs home | 30–2716th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–63 | 57–63 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 52–53 | 18–39 |
| Underdog | 7–10 | 39–24 |
| Overs–unders | 64–57–1 | 59–59–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 7–4 STL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.