Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bobby MillerPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Arenado homered to left (380 feet).2–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 5Winn homered to center (410 feet).2–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 5Ohtani homered to right center (384 feet).2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 3Burleson homered to right (383 feet), Winn scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 1Contreras singled to center, Burleson scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Freeman singled to center, Ohtani scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 52%
- ML LAD -120 / STL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 57.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -109
- STL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.8 – 4.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −2 | LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +53 Elo | LAD 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 7th of 3033–29 | Road vs home | 30–2817th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–64 | 58–63 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 52–54 | 18–39 |
| Underdog | 7–10 | 40–24 |
| Overs–unders | 65–57–1 | 60–59–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 8–4 STL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.