Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting4-5, 2 RBI
- Tobias MyersPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Arenado homered to left (375 feet), Winn scored, Contreras scored and Fermín scored.6–10
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–10
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 16–10
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–10
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–10
- 9Pham walked, Fermín scored, Carpenter to second, Scott II to third.6–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 46–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 36–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 26–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 9Carpenter walked, Contreras scored, Scott II to second, Fermín to third.6–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 46–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 36–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 26–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 8Ortiz doubled to center, Hoskins scored and Adames scored.6–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 36–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking6–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 7Baker homered to left center (388 feet), Burleson scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 7Chourio singled to left, Hoskins scored and Ortiz scored, Turang to second.4–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 6Contreras doubled to left, Chourio scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 32–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 5Ortiz hit sacrifice fly to right, Hoskins scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Winn singled to left, Nootbaar scored, Carpenter to second.0–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 52%
- ML MIL +100 / STL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 39%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.5 pts
- STL: Elo 38.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -109
- MIL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.7 – 3.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −10 | MIL: Tobias Myers: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · STL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +80 Elo | MIL 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 5th of 3035–28 | Road vs home | 31–3018th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–55 | 59–65 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 28–38 | 18–41 |
| Underdog | 40–17 | 41–24 |
| Overs–unders | 69–54 | 60–62–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 15–6 STL in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.