Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Frankie MontasPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Matt CarpenterBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Carpenter homered to right (374 feet), Nootbaar scored.3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 8Contreras doubled to right, Mitchell scored.3–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Ortiz singled to right, Frelick scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Frelick singled to center, Adames scored, Black to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 53%
- ML MIL +105 / STL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.4 pts
- STL: Elo 43.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -114
- MIL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.6 – 3.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +5 | MIL: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +43 Elo | MIL 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 5th of 3034–28 | Road vs home | 31–2917th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–55 | 59–64 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–38 | 18–40 |
| Underdog | 39–17 | 41–24 |
| Overs–unders | 69–53 | 60–61–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 14–6 STL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.