San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Burleson singled to center, Winn scored.7–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–4
- 7Burleson hit a ground rule double, Winn scored.7–3
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 37–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking7–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul7–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 27–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 5Merrill singled to right, Machado scored.7–2
- 5Pitch 10 : Ball In Play7–2
- 5Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 5Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 27–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 17–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–2
- 5Bogaerts hit sacrifice fly to center, Cronenworth scored, Machado to third.6–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 5Machado doubled to left, Profar scored, Cronenworth to third.5–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 25–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 15–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 4Carpenter hit sacrifice fly to center, Herrera scored.4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 53%
- ML SD +105 / STL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.2 pts
- STL: Elo 45.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -114
- SD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.1 – 4.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −11 | SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +35 Elo | SD 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 4th of 3036–26 | Road vs home | 33–3016th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–63 | 63–66 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 33–48 | 19–41 |
| Underdog | 35–15 | 44–25 |
| Overs–unders | 72–59–1 | 61–66–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 4–5 STL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.