St. Louis Cardinals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting1-3
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wallner homered to right center (430 feet).0–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Larnach homered to center (419 feet).0–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 3Kepler grounded into fielder's choice to second, Lewis scored, Wallner out at second.0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Larnach homered to right (384 feet), Martin scored and Castro scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 57%
- ML STL +120 / MIN -145
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 58.3%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- MIN -130
- STL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.5 – 4.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −8 | STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +58 Elo | MIN 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 18th of 3030–34 | Road vs home | 36–256th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–65 | 62–65 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–41 | 37–48 |
| Underdog | 43–24 | 25–17 |
| Overs–unders | 61–64–2 | 66–61 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–2 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.