San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jake CronenworthBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching4.1 IP, 9 ER, 3 K
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shane BazPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Caballero grounded out to pitcher, J. Lowe scored.4–11
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–11
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–11
- 8J. Lowe tripled to center, B. Lowe scored.4–10
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 24–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–10
- 7Arraez singled to left, McCoy scored.4–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–9
- 7McCoy doubled to left, Campusano scored.3–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–9
- 5Morel singled to right, Aranda scored.2–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–9
- 4Rortvedt singled to right, J. Lowe scored, Caballero to third.2–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–8
- 4Caballero singled to left, B. Lowe scored and Morel scored, J. Lowe to second.2–7
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–7
- 2Caminero homered to center (429 feet), Morel scored and B. Lowe scored.2–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 2B. Lowe singled to center, Siri scored, Morel to third.2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 1Caballero reached on infield single to shortstop, Caminero scored, J. Lowe to third.2–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 52%
- ML SD +100 / TB -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- TB: Elo 49.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -109
- SD +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.2 – 4.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +8 | SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +4 Elo | SD 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.526th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3039–28 | Road vs home | 34–3520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–65 | 61–72 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 34–49 | 23–42 |
| Underdog | 37–16 | 38–30 |
| Overs–unders | 75–61–1 | 62–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 3–1 TB in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.