San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Erasmo RamirezPitching2.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Solano singled to center, Campusano scored and Johnson scored, Profar to third.13–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play13–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul13–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking13–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 113–5
- 9Bogaerts homered to left (362 feet).11–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 111–5
- 8Aranda grounded out to shortstop, Walls scored, Jackson to third.10–5
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play10–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 310–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul10–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul10–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 210–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 110–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–5
- 4D. Peralta homered to right (404 feet), Bogaerts scored.10–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play10–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 310–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 210–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 110–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging10–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–4
- 3Solano walked, D. Peralta scored, Profar to second, Campusano to third.8–4
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 48–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 38–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 28–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 18–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 2Díaz homered to left center (400 feet), Walls scored.7–4
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 27–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 17–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 2Walls singled to center, Morel scored and DeLuca scored, Walls to second.7–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
- 2Machado homered to center (416 feet), Profar scored and Cronenworth scored.7–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 53%
- ML SD +105 / TB -125
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- TB: Elo 47.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -114
- SD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.6 – 3.9 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −3 | SD: Martin Perez: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +16 Elo | SD 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.525th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3038–28 | Road vs home | 34–3420th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–65 | 61–71 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 34–49 | 23–41 |
| Underdog | 36–16 | 38–30 |
| Overs–unders | 74–61–1 | 61–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 2–1 TB in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.