Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Mariners- Victor RoblesBatting2-4
- Logan GilbertPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Raleigh singled to center, Rivas scored, Robles to second.3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 8Díaz homered to left center (416 feet).3–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 7Siri homered to center (418 feet), DeLuca scored.2–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 6Robles scored on throwing error by catcher Jackson, Raleigh safe at second on error.0–1
- 6Robles scored on throwing error by catcher Jackson, Raleigh safe at second on error.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 50%
- Fair odds
- SEA -127
- TB +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | −8 | TB: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 1.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +2 Elo | TB 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.81st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 16th of 3031–32 | Road vs home | 40–275th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–70 | 52–78 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 23–41 | 32–56 |
| Underdog | 38–29 | 20–22 |
| Overs–unders | 60–71 | 57–71–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 6–5 SEA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.