San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hayden BirdsongPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Luke RaleyBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10Rivas singled to center, Moore scored.5–6
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–6
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 25–6
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 15–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 8Raley reached on infield single to shortstop, Rojas scored, Rivas to second.5–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 8Rivas singled to right, Turner scored, Rojas to second.5–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 8Rojas singled to right, Haniger scored, Turner to third.5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 8Turner singled to left, Polanco scored, Haniger to second.5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 6Ramos homered to left (429 feet), Wade Jr. scored.5–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 15–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 5Raley homered to center (414 feet).3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Conforto homered to center (419 feet), Ramos scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Wade Jr. homered to center (402 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML SF +125 / SEA -150
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.5%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- SEA -135
- SF +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.4 – 4.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −1 | SF: Hayden Birdsong: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +31 Elo | SEA 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.81st of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3027–35 | Road vs home | 37–267th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–65 | 51–75 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 28–42 | 31–53 |
| Underdog | 34–23 | 20–22 |
| Overs–unders | 66–60–1 | 55–69–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 1–2 SEA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.