Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting1-2
- Bryan WooPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gavin StonePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Muncy homered to right (400 feet), Smith scored.0–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 7Lux homered to center (393 feet).0–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 58%
- ML SEA +130 / LAD -155
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 56.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -140
- SEA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.9 – 4.6 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −1 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Gavin Stone: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +46 Elo | LAD 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3027–35 | Road vs home | 38–213rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–72 | 60–65 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 31–53 | 52–55 |
| Underdog | 20–19 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders | 53–68–2 | 65–59–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 0–3 LAD in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.