Chicago White Sox at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Korey LeeBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Giants- Mark CanhaBatting2-4
- Logan WebbPitching8.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sosa singled to left, Julks scored and Lee scored.6–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 9Lee singled to center, Benintendi scored on error and Robert Jr. scored, Lee safe at second on throwing error by center fielder McCray, Julks safe at third on error.4–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 24–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 4Estrada singled to right, Ramos scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Encarnación grounded out to second, Canha scored, Ramos to third.2–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Vaughn hit sacrifice fly to left, Robert Jr. scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Benintendi grounded out to second, Lopez scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SF 68%
- ML CHW +195 / SF -240
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- SF: Elo 68.9%, market 67.6%
- Fair odds
- SF -208
- CHW +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 2.4 – 4.1 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1381 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +14 | CHW: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +138 Elo | SF 68.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 66.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 66.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 67.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 30th of 3012–53 | Road vs home | 38–279th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–68 | 62–64 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 28–41 |
| Underdog | 52–65 | 34–23 |
| Overs–unders | 58–67–1 | 65–60–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 1–4 SF in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.