Chicago White Sox at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting3-5, 1 RBI
- Jonathan CannonPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Sheets singled to center, Lee scored.3–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 8Vargas hit sacrifice fly to left, Robert Jr. scored.2–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 12–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 6Chapman homered to left (402 feet).1–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 5Ramos hit sacrifice fly to center, Fitzgerald scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 5Wade Jr. reached on infield single to second, Casali scored, Fitzgerald to third.1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 5Fitzgerald doubled to left, McCray scored, Casali to third.1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Casali singled to center, Estrada scored, McCray to third.1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 5Robert Jr. singled to right, Baldwin scored.1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SF 69%
- ML CHW +205 / SF -250
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- SF: Elo 66.4%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- SF -218
- CHW +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 2.9 – 4.6 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1384 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −1 | CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SF: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +118 Elo | SF 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 69.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 68.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 30th of 3012–51 | Road vs home | 36–279th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–66 | 60–64 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 26–41 |
| Underdog | 52–63 | 34–23 |
| Overs–unders | 57–66–1 | 64–59–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 1–2 SF in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.