San Francisco Giants at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jerar EncarnacionBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Athletics- Miguel AndujarBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- JP SearsPitching7.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10Butler scored on error, Schuemann safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Wisely.4–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 10Conforto homered to right (395 feet).4–1
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 10Encarnación homered to center (399 feet), Chapman scored.3–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Ramos homered to center (448 feet).1–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 6Andujar singled to right, Cameron scored, Bleday thrown out at third.0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 59%
- ML SF -160 / OAK +135
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- SF: Elo 51.9%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- SF -145
- OAK +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.2 – 3.3 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +17 | SF: Blake Snell: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.84 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +13 Elo | SF 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 25th of 3026–35 | Road vs home | 30–3019th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–64 | 65–57 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–41 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 34–23 | 57–48 |
| Overs–unders | 64–58–1 | 58–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 3–4 OAK in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.