Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Jorge PolancoBatting2-3, 3 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Jason HeywardBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Heyward homered to right (372 feet), Smith scored and Muncy scored.3–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–6
- 7Betts doubled to left, Edman scored.3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Muncy homered to right (407 feet).3–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4Lux homered to center (390 feet).3–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Polanco doubled to center, Raleigh scored, Raley to third.3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 13–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Polanco singled to right, Raleigh scored and Raley scored, Arozarena to second.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 60%
- ML SEA +140 / LAD -165
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 56.6%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -149
- SEA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.8 – 4.7 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −5 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +46 Elo | LAD 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 24th of 3027–36 | Road vs home | 39–213rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–73 | 61–65 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 31–53 | 53–55 |
| Underdog | 20–20 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders | 53–69–2 | 65–60–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 0–4 LAD in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.