Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Mitch HanigerBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Haniger homered to center (422 feet).4–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–8
- 8Canzone grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Arozarena scored, Polanco out at second.3–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–8
- 6Moore walked, Raleigh scored, Canzone to second, Arozarena to third.2–8
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 42–8
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 32–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–8
- 5Muncy doubled to right, Smith scored, T. Hernández scored and Lux scored.1–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–8
- 5T. Hernández singled to left, Freeman scored.1–5
- 5Pitch 9 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 31–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–5
- 5Freeman doubled to center, Ohtani scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 4Smith hit sacrifice fly to center, T. Hernández scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 3Betts doubled to left, Ohtani scored and Kiermaier scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Canzone hit sacrifice fly to center, Arozarena scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 63%
- ML SEA +160 / LAD -190
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 59.8%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- LAD -170
- SEA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.2 – 6.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +7 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +69 Elo | LAD 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.83rd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 25th of 3027–37 | Road vs home | 40–212nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–74 | 62–65 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 31–53 | 54–55 |
| Underdog | 20–21 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders | 54–69–2 | 66–60–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 0–5 LAD in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.