San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Josh RojasBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8McCray homered to right (407 feet).3–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 6Rojas singled to center, Turner scored.2–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 6Haniger grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Arozarena scored, Polanco out at second, Turner to third.2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Rodríguez grounded into fielder's choice to first, Rojas scored, Moore out at second.2–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 1Raleigh singled to left, Moore scored.2–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Ramos homered to left center (390 feet), Fitzgerald scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML SF +120 / SEA -145
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 56.3%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -130
- SF +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.5 – 4.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +5 | SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +44 Elo | SEA 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.81st of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3028–36 | Road vs home | 38–278th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–65 | 51–77 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 28–42 | 31–55 |
| Underdog | 36–23 | 20–22 |
| Overs–unders | 68–60–1 | 57–69–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 2–3 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.