San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Mike YastrzemskiBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Arozarena grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Raley scored, Turner out at second, Rodríguez to third.4–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 34–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 7Yastrzemski homered to right (346 feet).4–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 5Estrada singled to left, Yastrzemski scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 2Rodríguez walked, Moore scored, Raley to second, Garver to third.2–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 42–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 2Raley walked, Polanco scored, Garver to second, Moore to third.2–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 42–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Fitzgerald singled to left, Estrada scored, McCray to second.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Chapman hit sacrifice fly to left, Fitzgerald scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 51%
- ML SF -105 / SEA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 52.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -104
- SF +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.2 – 3.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −8 | SF: Blake Snell: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +19 Elo | SEA 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.81st of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3027–36 | Road vs home | 38–266th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–65 | 51–76 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 28–42 | 31–54 |
| Underdog | 35–23 | 20–22 |
| Overs–unders | 67–60–1 | 56–69–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 1–3 SEA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.