Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Christopher MorelBatting2-4
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Osvaldo BidoPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 4Caballero doubled to left, Morel scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 3Butler singled to center, Cameron scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Hernaiz doubled to left, Nevin scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Gelof hit sacrifice fly to center, Butler scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 52%
- ML TB -120 / OAK +100
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- TB: Elo 57.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -109
- OAK +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.8 – 3.7 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | +6 | TB: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 1.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · OAK: Osvaldo Bido: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +55 Elo | TB 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 9th of 3030–28 | Road vs home | 31–3320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–66 | 67–59 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–40 | 9–9 |
| Underdog | 37–26 | 58–50 |
| Overs–unders | 58–68 | 58–68 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 9–4 OAK in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.