Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jonny DeLucaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gavin StonePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Betts homered to left center (387 feet), Ohtani scored.1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7DeLuca homered to left center (380 feet).1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5E. Hernández homered to center (395 feet).0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 68%
- ML TB +200 / LAD -240
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 62.5%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -212
- TB +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.4 – 5.1 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | +4 | TB: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.97 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · LAD: Gavin Stone: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +89 Elo | LAD 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 61.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 12th of 3031–30 | Road vs home | 42–221st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–68 | 64–66 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–41 | 56–56 |
| Underdog | 38–27 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders | 60–69 | 69–60–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–2 LAD in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.