Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Christopher MorelBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AlexanderPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Bobby MillerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ohtani homered to center (389 feet), Smith scored, Edman scored and Muncy scored.3–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 5E. Hernández homered to left center (386 feet), Edman scored and Lux scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 13–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 3Morel homered to left (381 feet), Caminero scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 1Caminero homered to center (417 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 63%
- ML TB +160 / LAD -190
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 60.8%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- LAD -170
- TB +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.7 – 4.8 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | −7 | TB: Tyler Alexander: team allows 0.94 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +76 Elo | LAD 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 64.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 12th of 3030–29 | Road vs home | 41–211st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–67 | 63–65 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–41 | 55–55 |
| Underdog | 37–26 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders | 58–69 | 67–60–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 2–1 LAD in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.